This section contains a high level summary of each Thinking Paradigm. If you have read the book, these can be used as a memory prompt. Otherwise they act an an introduction.
You might use this resource to quickly explore which paradigm might be encouraging Bad Thinking, making a decision activity difficult, or to look for ways to plan for Good Thinking in the decision process. In the summary PDFs, each Paradign is mapped to the DECIDE steps to show where they have most impact.
They are divided into our four classes below.
Used in the creation of thoughts and ideas.
The cascade of associated concepts that is triggered by any stimulus will prime our minds to create a frame of reference. This ‘framing’ will make large volumes of related information readily accessible, both consciously and unconsciously, for the next action or thought. - see more
The human mind can link together almost any collection of facts to create a credible storyline. This storyline will imply clear cause and effect and will skip over, or automatically fill in, any missing sections in order to maintain coherence. - see more
The confidence of decision makers will rarely match their ability and knowledge. Both overconfidence and under-confidence are caused by a focus on your own skills and disregarding the skills of others. The effects are strongest in forecasting and prediction. - see more
Intuition occurs when a subliminal process delivers an answer based on expertise and experience which Thinkers posses. Typically, the Thinker cannot explain how the answer originated. - see more
Used in analytic and critical thinking.
Our brain effortlessly pulls data from the vast store in our memory which is likely to be relevant to the task in hand. This highly efficient process sometimes presents the wrong data. - see more
Making decisions based on the data that is available rather than wasting time searching for more data that adds little value is very efficient. Sometimes it is important to check that important data gaps have not been ignored. - see more
The modest assumption that the data available to you is equally available to others engaged in the same decision process is generally a good one. However, sometimes that assumption can be wrong. This can lead different people to reach different conclusions and potentially to behave in unexpected ways. - see more
The ability of the mind to scan large quantities of data and quickly find matching pieces is very valuable in focusing a search. However, the same focus can cause us to miss important data that does not match the search criteria we are using. - see more
When we own something, or some idea, the value that we put on it increases. This helps us to hang onto it in the face of distractions and competition. This value can be also be misplaced or exaggerated leading to mistakes in priorities. - see more
Used to simplify complex questions to facilitate creative and analytical thinking
Unconsciously replacing complex questions, which we may not have the data or time to answer, with easier questions which are broadly comparable can save a lot of effort. When the question is a critical one it is important to test to see if any substitution is in play, and to check that it is a useful one. - see more
A conscious distillation of a complex decision or analysis process into a simple method which gives a good approximate result is obviously a very useful thinking technique. The risks are; using an inappropriate rule, or forgetting that the answer is only approximately right. - see more
A deliberate replacement of a complex, multi-dimensional, or even intimidating idea with a simple, compelling one can help analysis and focus efforts. However a misjudged map design can have have unfortunate and far reaching consequences. And we must always remember that the map is not the territory. - see more
Influencing our reactions to idea, and our risk perceptions.
As we reach extremes of risk, our behaviour becomes more extreme. Also, whether a possible outcome is framed negatively or positively strongly affects our perception of the level of risk associated with it. For good evolutionary reasons, our fear of negative outcomes is much stronger that our attraction to positive outcomes. - see more
False memories are the norm. We can trust that our memory will be effective most of the time. However, we should be aware that our memories, and other people’s memories, should be treated as only broadly correct. - see more